|UDC 339.5||DOI: https://doi.org/10.31617/zt.knute.2020(111)02|
Candidate of Economic Sciences (Ph.D.), Associate Professor at the Department of International Management Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics
19, Kyoto str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine
GLOBAL TRENDS OF WORD MERCHANDISE TRADE
Background. Current trends in trade are not a unique and completely new topic. But no country in the world can exist in conditions of autarky and give up foreign trade.
An analysis of recent research and publications has shown that a significant contribution to the study of foreign merchandize trade is made on the example of Ukraine using the fragmentary experience of leading countries. An important scientific and practical problem of the impact of global trade imbalances on the world commodity market remains unresolved.
The purpose of the research. The purpose of this research is to analyze and identify current global trends in the global commodity market.
Materials and methods. The main research methods are logical, analytical, graphical, tabular and statistical ones.
Results. The article analyzes the volume of world trade in 2011–2017, the growth rates of which were compared with the growth rate of GDP, «elasticity of trade from income», emphasizes the growing dynamics of trade in 2017 and declining – in 2018. According to the results of the study, regional imbalances were identified. Almost all regions, except North America and some others, recorded a reduction in exports and GDP in 2018. The thesis of China's continued economic growth was questioned. As for imports, only the countries of the Western Hemisphere had maintained a positive trend. A slight increase in nominal trade volumes in 2018 was accompanied by a combination of changes in sales volumes and rising prices for goods.
The rise in oil prices was explained by its low volatility due to increased control by OPEC. Another factor influencing the world commodity market was exchange rates. Despite constant fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, the value has changed insignificantly. The nominal value of the US dollar exchange rate against a wide basket of currency decreased by only 1.0% per year.
Conclusion. The article has analysed the main trends in world trade development for 2011–2018. Herewith the global statistics show the growth of trade. Also, the regional aspects of world trade do not have a significant impact: in particular, the strengthening / weakening of Asian countries' positions in the world market. Factors influencing the change in the main trend were identified - the price of goods, which showed only a formal increase in total volume by multiplying the volume of goods by price, rather than its physical volume. Another factor is the value of the currency: the depreciation of the US dollar, which led to an increase in exports. The value of the currency played only in the futures markets with swap agreements on the value of the currency.
The lack of statistics for 2019 and 2020 at the time of writing the article allowed us to make only assumptions about the change in global trends in the world commodity market under the influence of COVID-19 and the growth of speculative occurred in the oil market and gold market.
Keywords: word merchandise trade, GDP, Bloomberg, Fitch, oil prices, currency exchange rates.
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